chevron outlines plan to deliver leading shareholder returns

NEW YORK, March 3, 2020 — At its annual Security Analyst Meeting today, Chevron Corporation (NYSE: CVX) announced expectations to deliver leading shareholder returns through disciplined capital spending, improved cost efficiency, and continued cash flow growth over the next five years.

“Chevron has a winning investment proposition,” said Michael Wirth, Chevron’s chairman and CEO. “We believe our advantaged portfolio and capital efficiency enable us to grow cash flows and increase returns without relying on rising oil prices. Through continued execution of our strategy, Chevron has the potential to distribute $75 - $80 billion in cash to shareholders over the next five years.” 

Robust Cash Generation & Improved Returns on Capital

Higher returns are primarily driven by the company’s new $2 billion target for cost and margin improvements as well as short cycle, capital efficient investments. The company also expects 9 percent compound annual growth in adjusted operating cash flow per share through 2024 while holding annual capital spending in a narrow range of $19 to $22 billion. The combination is expected to result in the doubling of adjusted free cash flow per share by 2024.

“We remain focused on a returns-driven approach to capital allocation, investing in lower-risk projects that should drive solid earnings and cash flow growth. As a result, we expect return on capital to exceed 10 percent by 2024 at flat $60 Brent nominal prices, an improvement of over 300 basis points,” said Pierre Breber, Chevron’s chief financial officer. “This performance is supported by an unmatched balance sheet and the lowest dividend breakeven among our peers.”

More Cash Returned to Shareholders

Chevron remains committed to delivering on its financial priorities and returning more cash to its shareholders, as demonstrated by an 8 percent dividend increase in 2020 and $5 billion of expected annual share repurchases. Combined, the company has a total shareholder yield greater than 7 percent.

“Execution of our strategy is positioning Chevron to return more cash to shareholders, today and into the future,” Wirth said. “Even with price volatility, we have the capability to deliver leading dividend growth and sustain our buyback program well into the future.”

Disciplined Investments and Production Growth

Chevron continues to execute its lower-risk and disciplined capital program, highlighted by its world-class Permian Basin position, the major expansion in Kazakhstan, and an attractive queue of deepwater opportunities in the Gulf of Mexico. The company expects compound annual production growth greater than 3 percent from 2019 to 2024, excluding any future unannounced asset sales.

“Our long-term production profile is strong and growing. We have a deep unconventional resource base and expect to see sustained production over 1 million barrels per day in the Permian through 2040 at relatively flat activity levels,” said Jay Johnson, executive vice president, Upstream. “Our experience and technology edge in the deepwater should enable continued development in the Gulf of Mexico, Brazil, and West Africa, and we have long-lived, low-decline assets in Australia and Kazakhstan. On top of this foundation, we have additional organic opportunities already in our portfolio that could attract future capital and deliver upside.”

Approach to Energy Transition

The company continues to invest in the future of energy to meet the world’s need for affordable, reliable and ever-cleaner energy. This includes lowering its carbon intensity cost efficiently, increasing renewables in support of its business, and investing in potential breakthrough technologies such as alternative fueling infrastructure and carbon capture.  
“Our approach delivers greenhouse gas reductions in the short term while making investments in potential future breakthrough technologies for the long term,” Wirth added. “Chevron has the scale, capability and balance sheet strength to advance the innovations that will play a significant role in the future of energy.”

Non-GAAP Measures

For purposes of this news release, expected growth in adjusted operating cash flow refers to growth in cash flow from operations (CFFO) less working capital and special items divided by average diluted shares outstanding and assumes $5 billion per year in share repurchases.

Expected growth in adjusted free cash flow (FCF) refers to growth in CFFO less cash capital expenditures, working capital and special items divided by average diluted shares outstanding and assumes $5 billion per year in share repurchases. FCF represents the cash available to creditors and investors after investing in the business. 
For additional information regarding expected future performance, including adjusted CFFO and adjusted FCF, please refer to the presentations and full transcript of the meeting available on the Investor Relations website at www.chevron.com.

Chevron Corporation is one of the world's leading integrated energy companies. Through its subsidiaries that conduct business worldwide, the company is involved in virtually every facet of the energy industry. Chevron explores for, produces and transports crude oil and natural gas; refines, markets and distributes transportation fuels and lubricants; manufactures and sells petrochemicals and additives; generates power; and develops and deploys technologies that enhance business value in every aspect of the company's operations. Chevron is based in San Ramon, Calif. More information about Chevron is available at www.chevron.com.

NOTICE

As used in this news release, the term “Chevron” and such terms as “the company,” “the corporation,” “our,” “we” and “us” may refer to Chevron Corporation, one or more of its consolidated subsidiaries, or to all of them taken as a whole. All of these terms are used for convenience only and are not intended as a precise description of any of the separate companies, each of which manages its own affairs.

CAUTIONARY STATEMENT RELEVANT TO FORWARD-LOOKING INFORMATION FOR THE PURPOSE OF “SAFE HARBOR” PROVISIONS OF THE PRIVATE SECURITIES LITIGATION REFORM ACT OF 1995  

This news release contains forward-looking statements relating to Chevron’s operations that are based on management’s current expectations, estimates and projections about the petroleum, chemicals and other energy-related industries. Words or phrases such as “anticipates,” “expects,” “intends,” “plans,” “targets,” “forecasts,” “projects,” “believes,” “seeks,” “schedules,” “estimates,” “positions,” “pursues,” “drives,” “may,” “could,” “should,” “will,” “budgets,” “outlook,” “trends,” “guidance,” “focus,” “on schedule,” “on track,” “is slated,” “goals,” “objectives,” “strategies,” “opportunities,” “poised,” “potential,” and similar expressions are intended to identify such forward-looking statements. These statements are not guarantees of future performance and are subject to certain risks, uncertainties and other factors, many of which are beyond the company’s control and are difficult to predict. Therefore, actual outcomes and results may differ materially from what is expressed or forecasted in such forward-looking statements. The reader should not place undue reliance on these forward-looking statements, which speak only as of the date of this news release. Unless legally required, Chevron undertakes no obligation to update publicly any forward-looking statements, whether as a result of new information, future events or otherwise.

Among the important factors that could cause actual results to differ materially from those projected in the forward-looking statements are: changing crude oil and natural gas prices; changing refining, marketing and chemicals margins; the company's ability to realize anticipated cost savings and efficiencies associated with enterprise transformation initiatives; actions of competitors or regulators; timing of exploration expenses; timing of crude oil liftings; the competitiveness of alternate-energy sources or product substitutes; technological developments; the results of operations and financial condition of the company's suppliers, vendors, partners and equity affiliates, particularly during extended periods of low prices for crude oil and natural gas; the inability or failure of the company’s joint-venture partners to fund their share of operations and development activities; the potential failure to achieve expected net production from existing and future crude oil and natural gas development projects; potential delays in the development, construction or start-up of planned projects; the potential disruption or interruption of the company’s operations due to war, accidents, political events, civil unrest, severe weather, cyber threats, terrorist acts, and public health crises, such as pandemics and epidemics; crude oil production quotas or other actions that might be imposed by the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries and other producing countries, or other natural or human causes beyond the company’s control; changing economic, regulatory and political environments in the various countries in which the company operates; general domestic and international economic and political conditions; the potential liability for remedial actions or assessments under existing or future environmental regulations and litigation; significant operational, investment or product changes required by existing or future environmental statutes and regulations, including international agreements and national or regional legislation and regulatory measures to limit or reduce greenhouse gas emissions; the potential liability resulting from pending or future litigation; the company’s future acquisitions or dispositions of assets or shares or the delay or failure of such transactions to close based on required closing conditions; the potential for gains and losses from asset dispositions or impairments; government-mandated sales, divestitures, recapitalizations, industry-specific taxes, tariffs, sanctions, changes in fiscal terms or restrictions on scope of company operations; foreign currency movements compared with the U.S. dollar; material reductions in corporate liquidity and access to debt markets; receipt of required Board authorizations to effect future dividend and share repurchases; the effects of changed accounting rules under generally accepted accounting principles promulgated by rule-setting bodies; the company's ability to identify and mitigate the risks and hazards inherent in operating in the global energy industry; and the factors set forth under the heading “Risk Factors” on pages 18 through 21 of the company’s 2019 Annual Report on Form 10-K and in subsequent filings with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission. Other unpredictable or unknown factors not discussed in this presentation could also have material adverse effects on forward-looking statements.